Sarah Palin and 2012

If one reads the mainstream press, one can be excused for believing that Sarah Palin is now the front runner for the GOP nomination for President in 2012. Whatever else one may think about her, she has two major failings. First, almost everyone I talk to, whether liberal or conservative, considers her to be unqualified. And of equal importance, while she can create unprecedented enthusiasm among her conservative followers, this will not be enough to win the election. She will need to capture independent voters, something that she will be unable to do.


From the viewpoint of Obama supporters, they would love to see her run. She may be the only Republican that Obama can easily beat. She reminds me of Barry Goldwater, who thrilled his base, but lost to Lyndon Johnson in a landslide. He was simply too far from the moderate center to be electable. (Of course, the same was said about Ronald Reagan).


Palin frightens not only the moderate centrists. A significant number of conservative Republicans voted for Obama in 2008 simply because Palin scared them.


Below, two articles. The first, by Jennifer Rubin, points out the reasons why Palin is not the front runner. The second, which appeared in Pajamas Media, is the type of “over the top piece” we will see from Palin enthusiasts.    
Lawrence White






The myth of Palin's frontrunner status


By Jennifer Rubin Washington Post


Much of the punditocracy is obsessed with Sarah Palin. It's understandable on several levels. First, she makes for good copy and has a knack for coining catchy phrases ("death panels") and new words ("refudiate" -- it's now in the dictionary). She is controversial and opinionated, so given the choice between, say, a story on John Thune and one on Palin, it's a no-brainer to choose the best-selling author, TV reality show star and Tea Party darling. But conservatives suspect there's also some mischief-making afoot -- the desire by liberal-leaning members of the media and the White House to make Palin the symbol of the Republican Party, which they are convinced will translate into her presidential run, her nomination and a shellacking for the GOP at the polls in 2012.


You don't have to buy into a conspiracy to see that many in the media and on the left are convinced Palin will be the nominee. In fact, they seem to be in a bit of a time warp. Howard Kurtz recently praised her media savvy, an observation widely held by conservatives -- 18 months ago. Unlike conservatives who have had time to process the Palin phenomenon, non-conservatives are just beginning to evaluate her as more than a punchline or an object of ridicule. They suspect conservatives are oblivious to her shortcomings. But that's simply wrong.


For months now the real story on the right has been the search for new presidential contenders. There is far more awareness than many in the media imagine among conservative activists, Tea Partyers included, of Palin's limited appeal to independent voters. Her backing of questionable candidates in the Senate races, most especially Christine O'Donnell, rekindled concerns about her political judgment in a general election context. Is she admired for her ability to rally the base? Yes. Is she especially talented at throwing the White House off stride? Obviously. Does she give voice to populists' suspicion about media bias and liberal elites? Better than most anyone on the political scene. But the notion that she is a frontrunner is an eye-roller for most elected GOP officials (Chris Christie tipped his hand a bit on late-night TV) and even for many fans who furiously defended her against what conservatives saw as excessive and unfair criticism during the 2008 race.


Indeed, more Republicans -- on the Hill and around the country -- are beginning to suspect that she might not run. Why risk her fame and her rock-star status by running and possibly losing?


So political observers should watch the non-candidates and the maybe-candidates. There was for a time the Mitch Daniels buzz. However, he stumbled out of the gate, suggesting a truce on social issues that annoyed social conservatives and a penny-pinching approach to defense that alarmed hawks. There is the Chris Christie buzz. And now there's Mike Pence, a favorite of movement conservatives and Tea Partyers.


And then there is Paul Ryan, whose wonkishness excites conservative policymakers and whose devotion to limited government wins over Tea Partyers. A prominent conservative writer and think tank scholar told me, "He loves ideas; and he loves policy." Translation: he's not a celebrity candidate. And it's not every candidate who can write and hold forth on QE2.


Bill Kristol, editor of The Weekly Standard, (whose magazine has featured a number of conservative contenders and defended Palin from an onslaught of attacks during the campaign) comes right out with it when I ask his take on the state of the presidential race: "Ryan-Odierno 2012!" He adds, "You can quote me on that -- a wish and a prediction." That would be Gen. Ray Odinero, commander of our forces in Iraq. This may come as a shock to Palin fans and to those who perceived her as the favorite of the most influential weekly conservative magazine. But it won't surprise many Republican activists.


Actually, there is no "frontrunner" -- just many candidates with serious issues. (For example, Mitt Romney's Massachusetts health-care plan bears an uncanny resemblance to ObamaCare, which conservatives vow to repeal. I've yet to find a plugged-in Republican or a Tea Party activist who thinks he will be the nominee.)


Talking heads and mainstream reporters who are certain that Palin will be the nominee may not be looking to make trouble for the GOP. They are just behind the curve. In six months, when the field is better defined, we'll see who might emerge from the pack. Right now the frontrunner is "none of the above."






Critics on Both Sides Be Damned: Run, Sarah




Let the people decide if she's qualified, not the elites.

by Pam Meister   PajamasMedia


Love her or hate her, Sarah Palin has, within the past couple of years, become an American institution. All the former Alaskan governor has to do is post something on Facebook or give a “shout-out” on Twitter and both pundits and everyday Americans on both sides of the aisle are either singing her praises or talking about what a dumb hick she is who has no business breathing, let alone commenting on the news of the day.


The big question, of course, is whether Palin should run for president in 2012. Here are just a few reasons why a Palin run makes sense:


She is strong on defense. In a Facebook post on April 16, 2010, Palin noted that “it is in America’s and the world’s interests for our country to remain a dominant military superpower” and questioned President Obama’s statement to other world leaders that “whether we like it or not, we remain a dominant military superpower.” This seems to mirror more and more Americans’ concern that our national defense is “not strong enough” and the fact that fewer of us believe our defense “is about right.”


She is unapologetically pro-Israel. Palin’s evangelical faith is at the core of her pro-Israel stance. It’s so refreshing to hear someone on the national stage supporting a sovereign nation’s right to defense, right to build houses within her own borders, and right to a united capital city — Jerusalem.


She has — er, cojones. With all of the talk about whether Obama has any of his own or needs to borrow from Hillary Clinton, Palin has shown time and again that she’s not one to be intimidated — a plus when dealing with the likes of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Kim Jong Il. I, for one, believe her when she said that she stepped down as governor before her term was up because she felt that the numerous frivolous suits filed against her were affecting her ability to govern effectively.


And how many of us would be holding our heads as high as she is after being viciously attacked by friend and foe alike (and supposedly unbiased media) for well over two years now? Unless it’s about what kind of toilet paper she buys or what the fiber count on her bed sheets is, what else is anyone going to dig up on her or her family? Pretty much all her baggage is front and center. What you see is what you get.


She exemplifies a government “of the people, by the people, for the people.” Time and again, Palin’s elitist detractors — even those who are on the right side of the aisle — question whether or not she has enough experience to run for the highest office in the land, while ignoring the fact that she does actually have executive experience. Some also rant about her “mangling” of the English language (while ignoring Obama’s flubs like pronouncing corpsman “corpse-man”). Frankly, I’d much rather have someone in charge whose diction is imperfect but whose message is clear than someone who pronounces all (or most of) the words correctly but won’t say exactly what he means.


We also hear much about how Palin got her degree from a state school instead of a more “elite” institution — and was an average student who was “forgotten” by her professors. Many Americans have attended state universities (yours truly included) and haven’t had our intelligence questioned as a result. And why is it the kiss of death that her professors didn’t remember her? I’ll bet most of my former instructors would be hard put to remember me, considering the thousands of students they taught over the course of their careers. And Obama wasn’t exactly the most remembered student during his two years at Columbia.


Meghan McCain said she was “scared” by the fact that someone like Christine O’Donnell could just wake up one day and decide to run for national office. As I said at the time,


One does not have to be born into royalty or otherwise be part of the self-anointed elite to want to serve and represent one’s fellow citizens. Any ordinary schlub can run for office, making his case to the electorate, and letting it decide if he is suited for the job.


Ordinary Americans are sick and tired of being lectured by the self-anointed elites, the “intellectuals,” and the “ruling class,” and Sarah Palin’s growing popularity embodies this frustration and disgust.


I have a friend who wonders if Palin shouldn’t stay out of the race because she fears Palin and her family will be ripped even more by those on both sides who hate her. Palin knows better than anyone what lies ahead on the campaign trail. I say that if she wants to go for it, go for it — and the “stupid” American voter will ultimately decide if she is ready for the big time.

And if I had to place a bet on who wins in 2012, my money would be on Palin.



Pam Meister is a freelance writer whose work has appeared in a number of online publications including Big Hollywood, American Thinker, and Family Security